Probability Theory in Decision Making Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Probability Theory in Decision Making - Essay Example Firstly, it must be understood that the sale of juice by coffeeTime is a move to just boost the revenues of the company in the ongoing food festival. The second row (A2) of the table just goes to show that. The nil entries in all the 3 rows signify that any decision of the company against selling fruit juice will have no impact on the sales of coffee, which of primary interest to the company rather than selling fruit juice. There is also an interesting observation from the first row (A1). This row depicts that the sales for fruit juice are expected to register figures of a mere Rs.2000-3000 in the case of the mid-high range respectively. But, if the company suffers a low turnout, then the expected loss ifs around Rs.6000. This is much more than the sales for the highest possible sales turnover as has been previously mentioned. All this goes to show that the company is less likely to benefit in any major way and more likely to incur a loss in the eventuality of selling fruit juice. Th us, it is advisable not to proceed with the proposed plan of selling fruit juice at the south-Asian food festival. b. Firstly, the company can use the Bayesian logic for making any analysis only from data collected from other countries where it has its operations currently.